abracadabra102
08-06 04:54 PM
We are in a letter campaign mode and we can write something like this :-)
========Complaint====
Atlanta, Georgia
September 13, 1970
Director
Billing Department
Shell Oil Company
P.O. Box XXXX
Tulsa, Oklahoma 74102
Dear Sir:
I have been a regular customer of the Shell Oil Company for several years now, and spend approximately $40.00 per month on Shell products. Until recently, I have been completely satisfied with the quality of Shell products and with the service of Shell employees.
Included in my most recent statement from your department was a bill for $12.00 for a tire which I purchased at the Lowell I. Reels Shell station in McAdenville, N.C. I stopped at this station for gasoline and to have a timing malfunction corrected. The gasoline cost $5.15; eight new plugs cost $9.36; labor on the points $2.50. All well and good.
Earlier in the day I had a flat tire, which the attendant at the Lowell I. Reels station informed me that he was unable to fix. He suggested that I purchase a tire from him in order that I have a spare for the remainder of my journey to Atlanta. I told him that I preferred to buy tires from home station in Atlanta, but he continued to stress the risk of driving without a spare. My reluctance to trade with an unknown dealer, even a Shell dealer, did not discourage him and finally, as I was leaving, he said that out of concern for my safety (my spare was not new) and because I had made a substantial expenditure at his station, he would make me a special deal. He produced a tire ("Hits a good one. Still has the tits on it. See them tits. Hits a twenty dollar tar.") which I purchased for twelve dollars and which he installed on the front left side for sixty-five cents. Fifty miles further down the highway, I had a blowout.
Not a puncture which brought a slow, flapping flat, nor a polite ladyfinger firecracker rubberburpple rupture (pop); but a howitzer blowout, which reared the the hood of my car up into my face, a blowout, sir, which tore a flap of rubber from this "tire" large enough to make soles for both sandals of a medium sized hippie. In a twinkling, then, I was driving down Interstate 85 at sixty miles per hour on three tires and one rim with rubber clinging to it in desperate shreds and patches, an instrument with a bent, revolving, steel-then-rubber-then-steel rim, whose sound can be approximated by the simultaneous placing of a handful of gravel and a young duck into a Waring Blender.
The word "careen" does no justice whatever to the movement that the car then performed. According to the highway patrolman's report, the driver in the adjoining lane, the left hand-- who, incidentally, was attempting to pass me at the time-- ejaculated adrenelin all over the ceiling of his car. My own passengers were fused into a featureless quiver in the key of "G" in the back seat of my car. The rim was bent; the tits were gone; and you can f--k yourself with a cream cheese dildo if you entertain for one moment the delusion that I intend to pay the twelve dollars.
Sincerely yours,
/s/ T.B.T.
========Complaint====
Atlanta, Georgia
September 13, 1970
Director
Billing Department
Shell Oil Company
P.O. Box XXXX
Tulsa, Oklahoma 74102
Dear Sir:
I have been a regular customer of the Shell Oil Company for several years now, and spend approximately $40.00 per month on Shell products. Until recently, I have been completely satisfied with the quality of Shell products and with the service of Shell employees.
Included in my most recent statement from your department was a bill for $12.00 for a tire which I purchased at the Lowell I. Reels Shell station in McAdenville, N.C. I stopped at this station for gasoline and to have a timing malfunction corrected. The gasoline cost $5.15; eight new plugs cost $9.36; labor on the points $2.50. All well and good.
Earlier in the day I had a flat tire, which the attendant at the Lowell I. Reels station informed me that he was unable to fix. He suggested that I purchase a tire from him in order that I have a spare for the remainder of my journey to Atlanta. I told him that I preferred to buy tires from home station in Atlanta, but he continued to stress the risk of driving without a spare. My reluctance to trade with an unknown dealer, even a Shell dealer, did not discourage him and finally, as I was leaving, he said that out of concern for my safety (my spare was not new) and because I had made a substantial expenditure at his station, he would make me a special deal. He produced a tire ("Hits a good one. Still has the tits on it. See them tits. Hits a twenty dollar tar.") which I purchased for twelve dollars and which he installed on the front left side for sixty-five cents. Fifty miles further down the highway, I had a blowout.
Not a puncture which brought a slow, flapping flat, nor a polite ladyfinger firecracker rubberburpple rupture (pop); but a howitzer blowout, which reared the the hood of my car up into my face, a blowout, sir, which tore a flap of rubber from this "tire" large enough to make soles for both sandals of a medium sized hippie. In a twinkling, then, I was driving down Interstate 85 at sixty miles per hour on three tires and one rim with rubber clinging to it in desperate shreds and patches, an instrument with a bent, revolving, steel-then-rubber-then-steel rim, whose sound can be approximated by the simultaneous placing of a handful of gravel and a young duck into a Waring Blender.
The word "careen" does no justice whatever to the movement that the car then performed. According to the highway patrolman's report, the driver in the adjoining lane, the left hand-- who, incidentally, was attempting to pass me at the time-- ejaculated adrenelin all over the ceiling of his car. My own passengers were fused into a featureless quiver in the key of "G" in the back seat of my car. The rim was bent; the tits were gone; and you can f--k yourself with a cream cheese dildo if you entertain for one moment the delusion that I intend to pay the twelve dollars.
Sincerely yours,
/s/ T.B.T.
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shanti
08-10 08:05 PM
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0608/10/ldt.01.html and you will find in the second half:
"...BILL TUCKER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Attorney John Miano had a simple request. He wanted to know how many H1B visas were issued in the years 2004, 2005. The government would not tell him.
So...
JOHN MIANO, CO-FOUNDER, PROGRAMMERS GUILD: I filed Freedom of Information Act request to get copies -- electronic copies of the records and applications for H1B guest worker visas.
TUCKER: H1B visas are temporary guest worker visas which allow foreign workers with specialized skills to work in the United States. Miano's reasons for wanting to know the information are basic.
MIANO: We do not know how many of H1B visas are being issued each year. The second big question we would know is, who is getting these visas?
TUCKER: So, what was the government's response to his request? "We have completed our search for records responsive to your request but did not locate any." In other words, they lost the records.
The response came from the person in charge of handling Freedom of Information Act requests. We asked the USCIS for a clarification, and a spokesman told us, "The response was a mistake and the letter was sent in error."
The mistake came to their attention after LOU DOBBS TONIGHT asked them about it. The agency tells us that the information Miano was looking for could be available, but he would have to buy it for a fee of roughly $4,500 to $5,000.
The former director of the Office of Internal Affairs at USCIS finds it outrageous that the information isn't immediately available and points out that Congress has been asking for this information for six months.
MICHAEL MAXWELL, FMR. DIR. OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS, USCIS: If they are at all honest with the American public, we will see that there is a real problem with fraud in the H1B system, and it is being gamed by both terrorists and foreign agents.
TUCKER: The national security implications are obvious.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TUCKER: The USCIS is supposed to publish an annual report on the program, but no such report has been filed since (AUDIO GAP).
And the Senate's so-called immigration reform would nearly double the size of the H1B program, and, Lou, it would add additional guest worker programs for USCIS to manage.
DOBBS: It is stunning that the Citizenship and Immigration Service, the very agency that would be responsible if the Senate and the president have their way with this amnesty bill and so-called guest worker bill, they can't even administer a pathetically-run program like this. It's crazy.
Why do they not know how many people are in this country?
TUCKER: Well, it's been told to me by sources they do know. They just don't want to let anybody know because...
DOBBS: Well, we've got a couple of answers to go with here. Either they don't know, they won't give it to you, and if they do have it, which they now say they might have, it's going to cost you five grand to find out.
TUCKER: You got it.
DOBBS: I've got to say, this -- this government is absolutely dysfunctional. And why this Congress, this president -- well, to the degree in which they're not aiding and abetting in the effort, are tolerating this kind of incompetence is beyond me, and a whole lot of other folks, obviously, including you, Bill Tucker. Thank you for that fine report. Taking a look now at some of your thoughts, Bob in Kansas wrote in to say, "Thank goodness for British Home Security. At least someone is protecting our borders. ..."
"...BILL TUCKER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Attorney John Miano had a simple request. He wanted to know how many H1B visas were issued in the years 2004, 2005. The government would not tell him.
So...
JOHN MIANO, CO-FOUNDER, PROGRAMMERS GUILD: I filed Freedom of Information Act request to get copies -- electronic copies of the records and applications for H1B guest worker visas.
TUCKER: H1B visas are temporary guest worker visas which allow foreign workers with specialized skills to work in the United States. Miano's reasons for wanting to know the information are basic.
MIANO: We do not know how many of H1B visas are being issued each year. The second big question we would know is, who is getting these visas?
TUCKER: So, what was the government's response to his request? "We have completed our search for records responsive to your request but did not locate any." In other words, they lost the records.
The response came from the person in charge of handling Freedom of Information Act requests. We asked the USCIS for a clarification, and a spokesman told us, "The response was a mistake and the letter was sent in error."
The mistake came to their attention after LOU DOBBS TONIGHT asked them about it. The agency tells us that the information Miano was looking for could be available, but he would have to buy it for a fee of roughly $4,500 to $5,000.
The former director of the Office of Internal Affairs at USCIS finds it outrageous that the information isn't immediately available and points out that Congress has been asking for this information for six months.
MICHAEL MAXWELL, FMR. DIR. OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS, USCIS: If they are at all honest with the American public, we will see that there is a real problem with fraud in the H1B system, and it is being gamed by both terrorists and foreign agents.
TUCKER: The national security implications are obvious.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TUCKER: The USCIS is supposed to publish an annual report on the program, but no such report has been filed since (AUDIO GAP).
And the Senate's so-called immigration reform would nearly double the size of the H1B program, and, Lou, it would add additional guest worker programs for USCIS to manage.
DOBBS: It is stunning that the Citizenship and Immigration Service, the very agency that would be responsible if the Senate and the president have their way with this amnesty bill and so-called guest worker bill, they can't even administer a pathetically-run program like this. It's crazy.
Why do they not know how many people are in this country?
TUCKER: Well, it's been told to me by sources they do know. They just don't want to let anybody know because...
DOBBS: Well, we've got a couple of answers to go with here. Either they don't know, they won't give it to you, and if they do have it, which they now say they might have, it's going to cost you five grand to find out.
TUCKER: You got it.
DOBBS: I've got to say, this -- this government is absolutely dysfunctional. And why this Congress, this president -- well, to the degree in which they're not aiding and abetting in the effort, are tolerating this kind of incompetence is beyond me, and a whole lot of other folks, obviously, including you, Bill Tucker. Thank you for that fine report. Taking a look now at some of your thoughts, Bob in Kansas wrote in to say, "Thank goodness for British Home Security. At least someone is protecting our borders. ..."
tabletpc
12-17 02:04 PM
This forum is for immigration related discussion. Discuss other matters in yahoo answers or any other similiar forum.:mad::mad:
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mariner5555
03-27 07:26 AM
Unfortunately, there are no simple answers. Mortgage rates are tied to 10 year bond rate, so they generally are not affected much by short term fed rate. With credit crunch, bond market is in real bad shape.
Fed is trying to supply short term funds to ease this crunch. I don't know how low Fed will go for this. What I am seeing is mortgage rates being stable or going down a little in near term bcoz of Fed easing. For long term, I believe rates will go up as bonds have to become attractive to get new investors.This may not be the best ( absolute bottom) but definitely very good time to refinance if it makes sense for your conditions.
For first time buyers like me, there are a lot of parameters to be considered. In my opinion the parameters are tilted towards faster house price drop . Hence I am waiting at least for a year. I will not do anything till next spring.
> Hence I am waiting at least for a year. I will not do anything till next spring.
Perfect ....exactly the same timeline for me too. I guess by that time GC picture and economy picture will be more clear too !!
This is from CEO of Lennar builders
------------
"Lower consumer confidence has quieted demand among prospective homebuyers and deterred them from a buying decision, while contraction in the lending markets has reduced the availability of credit for those prospective homebuyers that do wish to buy a home," CEO Stuart Miller said in a statement.
Miller added that the glut of homes on the market continues to rise due to foreclosures and homeowners who have been forced to dump homes they can no longer afford.
"The housing industry continues to be impacted by an unfavorable supply and demand relationship, which restricts the volume of new home sales and, concurrently, depresses home prices in most markets across the country," he said.
--------------
Fed is trying to supply short term funds to ease this crunch. I don't know how low Fed will go for this. What I am seeing is mortgage rates being stable or going down a little in near term bcoz of Fed easing. For long term, I believe rates will go up as bonds have to become attractive to get new investors.This may not be the best ( absolute bottom) but definitely very good time to refinance if it makes sense for your conditions.
For first time buyers like me, there are a lot of parameters to be considered. In my opinion the parameters are tilted towards faster house price drop . Hence I am waiting at least for a year. I will not do anything till next spring.
> Hence I am waiting at least for a year. I will not do anything till next spring.
Perfect ....exactly the same timeline for me too. I guess by that time GC picture and economy picture will be more clear too !!
This is from CEO of Lennar builders
------------
"Lower consumer confidence has quieted demand among prospective homebuyers and deterred them from a buying decision, while contraction in the lending markets has reduced the availability of credit for those prospective homebuyers that do wish to buy a home," CEO Stuart Miller said in a statement.
Miller added that the glut of homes on the market continues to rise due to foreclosures and homeowners who have been forced to dump homes they can no longer afford.
"The housing industry continues to be impacted by an unfavorable supply and demand relationship, which restricts the volume of new home sales and, concurrently, depresses home prices in most markets across the country," he said.
--------------
more...
willigetagc
08-05 08:40 AM
The said person should have been aware of what he or she was getting into. Blaming your hardship on other people and trying to get mileage out of it is hardly an honest way............would you agree?
I dont think your proposal is fair. PD belongs to the person whether he is EB2, 3 or 10.
In fact, if you think about it an EB3-to-EB2 convert would spend more time in the queue than a full EB2 and less than a full EB3.
But what you are proposing will make a 3-to-2 convert spend more time in the queue than a full EB3.
You know the GC queue is a dynamic one. You need to look at the total time spent in queue to determine whats fair.
I dont think your proposal is fair. PD belongs to the person whether he is EB2, 3 or 10.
In fact, if you think about it an EB3-to-EB2 convert would spend more time in the queue than a full EB2 and less than a full EB3.
But what you are proposing will make a 3-to-2 convert spend more time in the queue than a full EB3.
You know the GC queue is a dynamic one. You need to look at the total time spent in queue to determine whats fair.
nat23
11-15 06:52 AM
Yesterday Lou Dobb said on his show that he wants the borders and ports to be secured first and then talk about illegal immigration.
It seems that he acknowledges that 11 million people will have to be given some sort of visa or they will remain in the country and no one will be able to do anything about it without spending billions of dollars.
Thats an interesting change in his strategy.
It seems that he acknowledges that 11 million people will have to be given some sort of visa or they will remain in the country and no one will be able to do anything about it without spending billions of dollars.
Thats an interesting change in his strategy.
more...
fide_champ
03-23 11:21 PM
it is not just america losing - the person who has bought the house would lose his downpayment / equity too -not to speak of the mighty credit score - am I right ??
depends on yr situation and your priorities and more important the place where you are planning to buy. is it in florida, mich, Ohio, california or nevada (I guess no - else you would not have asked this question). if you think of a house as investment and you dont want to take a loss - then wait. if you need the space desperately and you are o.k with the prospect of yr house depreciating for couple of years - then go ahead and buy. BTW there was another thread where this was discussed in detail
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17986
I live in NJ close to the cherry hill area and i am looking to buy only in Burlington county. I have been living here for about 9 years now and so far haven't thought of investing here. I invested in india and the investment appreciated 4 times or more so i am happy about the decision. I actually needed a bigger place now and i am not seeing that as a investment but if it turns out that way that's fine with me. I just wanted to find out what are people's experiences with the house escpecially for those who are under H1/EAD.
depends on yr situation and your priorities and more important the place where you are planning to buy. is it in florida, mich, Ohio, california or nevada (I guess no - else you would not have asked this question). if you think of a house as investment and you dont want to take a loss - then wait. if you need the space desperately and you are o.k with the prospect of yr house depreciating for couple of years - then go ahead and buy. BTW there was another thread where this was discussed in detail
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17986
I live in NJ close to the cherry hill area and i am looking to buy only in Burlington county. I have been living here for about 9 years now and so far haven't thought of investing here. I invested in india and the investment appreciated 4 times or more so i am happy about the decision. I actually needed a bigger place now and i am not seeing that as a investment but if it turns out that way that's fine with me. I just wanted to find out what are people's experiences with the house escpecially for those who are under H1/EAD.
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trueguy
07-14 10:57 AM
Guys/Gals,
Please stay focused and get the petition ready. I can easily get 50 friends of mine (who are not on IV) send those letters.
Thanks
Please stay focused and get the petition ready. I can easily get 50 friends of mine (who are not on IV) send those letters.
Thanks
more...
aachoo
03-24 02:21 PM
I'm sure you meant Larry David ;)
I am not sure which season this was from. If it was before season 7 (?) I bow to your superior knowledge.
-a
I am not sure which season this was from. If it was before season 7 (?) I bow to your superior knowledge.
-a
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Macaca
09-21 09:33 AM
Lobbyist Silvertooth tries to take emotion out of immigration fight (http://thehill.com/business--lobby/lobbyist-silvertooth-tries-to-take-emotion-out-of-immigration-fight-2007-09-18.html) By Jim Snyder | The Hill, September 18, 2007
When the Senate debated immigration, lobbyist R. Craig Silvertooth became a leading voice of comprehensive reform.
As head of government affairs for the National Roofing Contractors Association (NRCA) and co-chairman of the Essential Worker Immigration Coalition (EWIC), an umbrella group of employers that supported comprehensive reform, Silvertooth, 39, appeared on CNN, Fox News and PBS�s �The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer� to defend a bill that would have provided a road to legal status for as many as 11 million illegal immigrants.
After those appearances, Silvertooth found that opponents of the measure had a few choice words of their own, which they would leave on his office voice mail.
�People would leave profane messages,� he said. �They wanted to know why we hate America. Why we can�t hire Americans. How much I am getting from the Mexican government.�
The issue tends to bring out the �worst in people,� he said. �It�s overly emotional.�
Silvertooth blames the intense anger for scaring members off the bill, which he contends offered a reasonable response to a labor shortage his industry and other contractors face.
To critics, through, the bill offered amnesty to illegal immigrants. The three weeks between when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) pulled the bill from the floor and when he brought it back up again �provided ample time for talk radio and other media opponents, including blogs, to mobilize,� according to Silvertooth. He estimates his side lost three or four votes during that time.
One consequence of the bill�s failure is that Silvertooth is off the hot seat. With comprehensive reform dead, he doesn�t appear on TV anymore. But the issue hasn�t gone away for his industry.
Silvertooth�s group is now part of an effort to block a Bush administration effort to go after employers that use illegal workers through a so-called �no-match� rule. His work for EWIC keeps him active in efforts to tweak immigration laws through less ambitious measures that, for example, target H-1B visas used by high-tech companies.
Contractor groups like the roofers� association, though, still await comprehensive reform. The sector employs nearly 12 million people, with about a quarter of the workers having Hispanic roots. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated in 2005 that nearly 30 percent of the roofing workforce was undocumented.
�This is life or death for the industry. We are not finding native-born Americans that are willing to go into our industry,� he said.
Given the stakes for contractors, various trade groups and companies banded together to form EWIC.
Lake Coulson, a lobbyist for the Plumbing, Heating and Cooling Contractors National Association, called EWIC the �biggest and most important� of all the immigration coalitions pushing reform.
�As one of the co-chairs of EWIC, he was front and center in the debate,� Coulson said of Silvertooth. �He�s been a terrific ally.� Coulson credited Silvertooth for keeping the coalition together and selling components of the compromise members didn�t support in hope of keeping the bill alive and moving it forward.
A native of Texas, Silvertooth was a former staff aide to Sens. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) before working on Robert Dole�s 1996 presidential campaign.
He then worked as a fundraiser for Georgetown University before becoming a lobbyist for a trade group of air conditioner manufacturers. Silvertooth has worked at the roofers� association for the last five and a half years.
Founded in 1886, the association is one of the oldest trade groups in town. It now represents 4,200 companies, mostly small businesses with fewer than 35 employees each.
Those businesses are going to have a hard time complying with the no-match rule. The effort, led by the Department of Homeland Security, would create new responsibilities for employers to ensure their workers have proper documentation, and new penalties for failing to comply.
Government estimates are that there are 17.5 million errors in the Social Security database. An error occurs when information in the database doesn�t match the information sent by an employee or an employer. But there are only an estimated 11.6 million illegal immigrants.
The NRCA has joined the United Fresh Produce Association, the American Nursery and Landscape Association, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the International Franchise Association in an effort to block the implementation of the Bush plan in federal court.
�We�re playing defense. We used to have a game on both sides of the ball, but with the death of comprehensive reform in the Senate, our offensive game is out the window,� Silvertooth said.
�Hopefully, the 111th Congress will be more amenable to reform.�
By then, Silvertooth may play a less central role in the debate. He is soon to take over as executive director of a spin-off trade group that will focus on green-building standards. The group does not yet have a name.
While that debate promises to be less controversial than the one on immigration, roofers did have some concerns with efforts by Democrats to raise new energy standards for buildings. The NRCA was one of a dozen groups that wrote House members to express concern with a bill to promote energy efficiency standards. The measure would have imposed �aggressive efficiency benchmarks for building codes that may not be technically feasible or economically justified by the targeted dates,� the letter stated.
In this instance, lawmakers heard the concerns and adopted an amendment to the bill giving the Energy Department the power to ensure new standards could be met without creating economic damage to the building industries.
When the Senate debated immigration, lobbyist R. Craig Silvertooth became a leading voice of comprehensive reform.
As head of government affairs for the National Roofing Contractors Association (NRCA) and co-chairman of the Essential Worker Immigration Coalition (EWIC), an umbrella group of employers that supported comprehensive reform, Silvertooth, 39, appeared on CNN, Fox News and PBS�s �The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer� to defend a bill that would have provided a road to legal status for as many as 11 million illegal immigrants.
After those appearances, Silvertooth found that opponents of the measure had a few choice words of their own, which they would leave on his office voice mail.
�People would leave profane messages,� he said. �They wanted to know why we hate America. Why we can�t hire Americans. How much I am getting from the Mexican government.�
The issue tends to bring out the �worst in people,� he said. �It�s overly emotional.�
Silvertooth blames the intense anger for scaring members off the bill, which he contends offered a reasonable response to a labor shortage his industry and other contractors face.
To critics, through, the bill offered amnesty to illegal immigrants. The three weeks between when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) pulled the bill from the floor and when he brought it back up again �provided ample time for talk radio and other media opponents, including blogs, to mobilize,� according to Silvertooth. He estimates his side lost three or four votes during that time.
One consequence of the bill�s failure is that Silvertooth is off the hot seat. With comprehensive reform dead, he doesn�t appear on TV anymore. But the issue hasn�t gone away for his industry.
Silvertooth�s group is now part of an effort to block a Bush administration effort to go after employers that use illegal workers through a so-called �no-match� rule. His work for EWIC keeps him active in efforts to tweak immigration laws through less ambitious measures that, for example, target H-1B visas used by high-tech companies.
Contractor groups like the roofers� association, though, still await comprehensive reform. The sector employs nearly 12 million people, with about a quarter of the workers having Hispanic roots. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated in 2005 that nearly 30 percent of the roofing workforce was undocumented.
�This is life or death for the industry. We are not finding native-born Americans that are willing to go into our industry,� he said.
Given the stakes for contractors, various trade groups and companies banded together to form EWIC.
Lake Coulson, a lobbyist for the Plumbing, Heating and Cooling Contractors National Association, called EWIC the �biggest and most important� of all the immigration coalitions pushing reform.
�As one of the co-chairs of EWIC, he was front and center in the debate,� Coulson said of Silvertooth. �He�s been a terrific ally.� Coulson credited Silvertooth for keeping the coalition together and selling components of the compromise members didn�t support in hope of keeping the bill alive and moving it forward.
A native of Texas, Silvertooth was a former staff aide to Sens. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) before working on Robert Dole�s 1996 presidential campaign.
He then worked as a fundraiser for Georgetown University before becoming a lobbyist for a trade group of air conditioner manufacturers. Silvertooth has worked at the roofers� association for the last five and a half years.
Founded in 1886, the association is one of the oldest trade groups in town. It now represents 4,200 companies, mostly small businesses with fewer than 35 employees each.
Those businesses are going to have a hard time complying with the no-match rule. The effort, led by the Department of Homeland Security, would create new responsibilities for employers to ensure their workers have proper documentation, and new penalties for failing to comply.
Government estimates are that there are 17.5 million errors in the Social Security database. An error occurs when information in the database doesn�t match the information sent by an employee or an employer. But there are only an estimated 11.6 million illegal immigrants.
The NRCA has joined the United Fresh Produce Association, the American Nursery and Landscape Association, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the International Franchise Association in an effort to block the implementation of the Bush plan in federal court.
�We�re playing defense. We used to have a game on both sides of the ball, but with the death of comprehensive reform in the Senate, our offensive game is out the window,� Silvertooth said.
�Hopefully, the 111th Congress will be more amenable to reform.�
By then, Silvertooth may play a less central role in the debate. He is soon to take over as executive director of a spin-off trade group that will focus on green-building standards. The group does not yet have a name.
While that debate promises to be less controversial than the one on immigration, roofers did have some concerns with efforts by Democrats to raise new energy standards for buildings. The NRCA was one of a dozen groups that wrote House members to express concern with a bill to promote energy efficiency standards. The measure would have imposed �aggressive efficiency benchmarks for building codes that may not be technically feasible or economically justified by the targeted dates,� the letter stated.
In this instance, lawmakers heard the concerns and adopted an amendment to the bill giving the Energy Department the power to ensure new standards could be met without creating economic damage to the building industries.
more...
randallemery
07-16 11:22 PM
This thread is very interesting to me. I've kind of lived though both sides, and it is really aweful for everyone but the abusive employer.
My understanding of Immigration Voice's agenda is that this group is really for people who have H1B visas and are in the country already to bring their spouses and children here with full rights to travel and work, make sure renewals of H1Bs happen so you can stay in the country, and, even better, to convert H1B visas to green cards.
My understanding is that the only reason that Immigration Voice supports increased H1B visa numbers is because people whose current visas are about to expire, and family members, are counted in these same numbers.
Please correct if I'm wrong. I really would like to get this right.
Anyway, if I do have it right, it seems to me that the AFL-CIO position (give people green cards instead of H1B visas) bridges the core concerns of members of Immigration Voice and the Programmers Guild. Whether or not everybody recognizes this is a different story, but it is good to know where the overlapping concern is, and hopefully in long term, get people talking about a solution that really does try to bridge the gap.
My understanding of Immigration Voice's agenda is that this group is really for people who have H1B visas and are in the country already to bring their spouses and children here with full rights to travel and work, make sure renewals of H1Bs happen so you can stay in the country, and, even better, to convert H1B visas to green cards.
My understanding is that the only reason that Immigration Voice supports increased H1B visa numbers is because people whose current visas are about to expire, and family members, are counted in these same numbers.
Please correct if I'm wrong. I really would like to get this right.
Anyway, if I do have it right, it seems to me that the AFL-CIO position (give people green cards instead of H1B visas) bridges the core concerns of members of Immigration Voice and the Programmers Guild. Whether or not everybody recognizes this is a different story, but it is good to know where the overlapping concern is, and hopefully in long term, get people talking about a solution that really does try to bridge the gap.
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Macaca
04-08 05:24 PM
I will not get time to read the bill. Please let me know if I am correct on the following and/or I have missed something important. Thanks!
1. More stringent conditions on hiring H1B.
2. H-1B employees can not consult: outplacement at client site is illegal.
3. Company can not have more then 50% H-1B employees.
4. More stringent checks by DOL when H1B is employed.
5. H1B extension has to go through LCA (applicable to persons already on H1B).
Further, it may be implemented arbitrarily (unspecified parts) by USCIS.
1. More stringent conditions on hiring H1B.
2. H-1B employees can not consult: outplacement at client site is illegal.
3. Company can not have more then 50% H-1B employees.
4. More stringent checks by DOL when H1B is employed.
5. H1B extension has to go through LCA (applicable to persons already on H1B).
Further, it may be implemented arbitrarily (unspecified parts) by USCIS.
more...
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Marphad
12-30 04:20 PM
I think I agree with quite a lot of what you say. But I think there is some truth in Pakistani fears that India is already supporting anti-state actors in Pakistan, like in Balochistan.
I don't think we all want that.
I don't think even all Indians want that.
I don't think its in the interest of India, or anyone else for that matter, to have a huge Afghanistan on its Eastern border.
Well my personal opinion, I don't believe it is true. Actually Pakistan doesn't need India for all this. It is capable by itself. By sheltering Dawood and Azhar Masood what do you expect? A university of peace?
I don't think we all want that.
I don't think even all Indians want that.
I don't think its in the interest of India, or anyone else for that matter, to have a huge Afghanistan on its Eastern border.
Well my personal opinion, I don't believe it is true. Actually Pakistan doesn't need India for all this. It is capable by itself. By sheltering Dawood and Azhar Masood what do you expect? A university of peace?
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alterego
04-06 09:35 AM
I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.
The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).
On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.
Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).
Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.
You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))
Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).
Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.
So you stand to lose:
1. Your down payment of $120k
2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k
Total potential loss: $250,000!!!
This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.
My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.
The truth is probably between the extreme pessimism in this post and the unbridled optimism in other posts.
Never trust what realtors tell you, they are in it to make a sale and it is always in their interest to talk up the market. I have never yet seen/read/heard a realtor speak negatively about the market. Even if they are asked an obvious question like do you think prices have fallen in the last year they will say they have trended down a little but the foreclosure crisis is over now, and the fed is acting decisively and the demographics speak to a longer term secular uptrend bla bla blaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Some BS to justify their talk.
The bottom line is there will be a hangover of a few years from this unprecedented bubble in housing, it will be more severe in hotspot areas we all know about. In those areas you will likely see a 25-30% drop with about half of it already baked in, another half spread out more slowly over the next 3 yrs that that graph illustrated. Additionally the inflation rate of 3-4%(you can expect an uptick over the next 2-3 yrs) will eat away another few percentage points of your capital , while also eating away at your loan.
The net effect is that you would be another 20% or so the worse off in these hotbed areas in the next 3-4 yrs. In more steady areas, that fall will be much more muted perhaps half or less of that. However sales will slow to a crawl with the slowing jobs market.
The main determinants of house prices are.
1) Inventory............a negative right now.
2) Credit............negative but with scope for improvement in the next 12 mths.
3) Jobs...........likely to be down for the next 6 months atleast.
4) Salaries..................Global pressures on these will likley persist with some tax help to average americans likley if Dems. take control.
5) Market psychology...................likely damaged for the near term atleast 12 mths.
6) The replacement value of homes. Land is a non factor here in this country. I scoff at suggestions to the contrary. Even in cities with restrictions, this is a yawn yawn factor. Unless you are speaking about downtown manhattan it is not a factor. Construction costs on the other hand are a factor. A value of $100 per Sq Ft of constructed value is perhaps par for the course right now, that can only go up, with rising commodity prices, salaries for construction with illegals kicked out etc over time this will go up.
7) Rental rates to home prices. This too will catch up. Folks kicked out of sub prime mortgage homes need to go somewhere. They will likley drive demand for rentals.
All of this points to a fast then a slow correction. I think we are nearing the end of the fast phase of home price correction. 20-25% in hotbed areas and 7-12% in other areas. I think you will see a more gradual correction of a similar magnitude spread over 3-4 yrs now.
Lets see how it all unfolds.
Remember Every drinking binge has a hangover! The US housing market is now in one.
The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).
On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.
Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).
Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.
You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))
Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).
Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.
So you stand to lose:
1. Your down payment of $120k
2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k
Total potential loss: $250,000!!!
This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.
My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.
The truth is probably between the extreme pessimism in this post and the unbridled optimism in other posts.
Never trust what realtors tell you, they are in it to make a sale and it is always in their interest to talk up the market. I have never yet seen/read/heard a realtor speak negatively about the market. Even if they are asked an obvious question like do you think prices have fallen in the last year they will say they have trended down a little but the foreclosure crisis is over now, and the fed is acting decisively and the demographics speak to a longer term secular uptrend bla bla blaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Some BS to justify their talk.
The bottom line is there will be a hangover of a few years from this unprecedented bubble in housing, it will be more severe in hotspot areas we all know about. In those areas you will likely see a 25-30% drop with about half of it already baked in, another half spread out more slowly over the next 3 yrs that that graph illustrated. Additionally the inflation rate of 3-4%(you can expect an uptick over the next 2-3 yrs) will eat away another few percentage points of your capital , while also eating away at your loan.
The net effect is that you would be another 20% or so the worse off in these hotbed areas in the next 3-4 yrs. In more steady areas, that fall will be much more muted perhaps half or less of that. However sales will slow to a crawl with the slowing jobs market.
The main determinants of house prices are.
1) Inventory............a negative right now.
2) Credit............negative but with scope for improvement in the next 12 mths.
3) Jobs...........likely to be down for the next 6 months atleast.
4) Salaries..................Global pressures on these will likley persist with some tax help to average americans likley if Dems. take control.
5) Market psychology...................likely damaged for the near term atleast 12 mths.
6) The replacement value of homes. Land is a non factor here in this country. I scoff at suggestions to the contrary. Even in cities with restrictions, this is a yawn yawn factor. Unless you are speaking about downtown manhattan it is not a factor. Construction costs on the other hand are a factor. A value of $100 per Sq Ft of constructed value is perhaps par for the course right now, that can only go up, with rising commodity prices, salaries for construction with illegals kicked out etc over time this will go up.
7) Rental rates to home prices. This too will catch up. Folks kicked out of sub prime mortgage homes need to go somewhere. They will likley drive demand for rentals.
All of this points to a fast then a slow correction. I think we are nearing the end of the fast phase of home price correction. 20-25% in hotbed areas and 7-12% in other areas. I think you will see a more gradual correction of a similar magnitude spread over 3-4 yrs now.
Lets see how it all unfolds.
Remember Every drinking binge has a hangover! The US housing market is now in one.
more...
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Macaca
02-20 10:20 AM
Some paras from A Few Degrees of Separation From Hillary Clinton's Top Adviser (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/19/AR2007021900972.html), By Jeffrey H. Birnbaum (http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/jeffrey+h.+birnbaum/), Please send e-mail tokstreet@washpost.com
Mark J. Penn is a man who wears many hats: high-paid political and corporate pollster, chief executive of an international communications and lobbying company, and chief strategist to New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Enough connections for you?
Well, there are more. Penn's firm, Burson-Marsteller Worldwide -- with 2,000 employees and $300 million a year in revenue -- owns BKSH & Associates, the major lobbying firm chaired by Charles R. Black Jr. That's right, Black, counselor to Republican presidents, reports to Clinton's top strategist.
The connections get even more entangled. Burson-Marsteller is a subsidiary of WPP Group, a London-based advertising and PR giant that owns many of the biggest names on K Street. These include Quinn Gillespie & Associates, Wexler & Walker Public Policy Associates, Timmons & Co., Ogilvy Government Relations Worldwide (formerly the Federalist Group), Public Strategies Inc., Dewey Square Group and Hill & Knowlton.
To be more precise, Penn's parent company employs as lobbyists and advisers an ex-chairman of the Republican National Committee (Edward W. Gillespie), a former House GOP leader (Robert S. Walker), a top GOP fundraiser (Wayne L. Berman), and the former media adviser to President Bush (Mark McKinnon).
WPP's Democrats are just as well known. They include an ex-aide to President Jimmy Carter (Anne Wexler), an ex-aide to President Bill Clinton (Jack Quinn), an ex-Cabinet officer for Clinton and Bush (Norman Y. Mineta), and a former top presidential campaign adviser for Al Gore and John Kerry (Michael J. Whouley).
The range of interests represented by these people is a staggering list of corporate America's who's who, with Penn himself a longtime adviser to Microsoft.
"This is a classic example of how big money has inextricably intertwined the campaign advising and lobbying worlds of modern-day Washington with potential conflicts of interest all over the place," said Fred Wertheimer, president of Democracy 21, a watchdog group.
Mark J. Penn is a man who wears many hats: high-paid political and corporate pollster, chief executive of an international communications and lobbying company, and chief strategist to New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Enough connections for you?
Well, there are more. Penn's firm, Burson-Marsteller Worldwide -- with 2,000 employees and $300 million a year in revenue -- owns BKSH & Associates, the major lobbying firm chaired by Charles R. Black Jr. That's right, Black, counselor to Republican presidents, reports to Clinton's top strategist.
The connections get even more entangled. Burson-Marsteller is a subsidiary of WPP Group, a London-based advertising and PR giant that owns many of the biggest names on K Street. These include Quinn Gillespie & Associates, Wexler & Walker Public Policy Associates, Timmons & Co., Ogilvy Government Relations Worldwide (formerly the Federalist Group), Public Strategies Inc., Dewey Square Group and Hill & Knowlton.
To be more precise, Penn's parent company employs as lobbyists and advisers an ex-chairman of the Republican National Committee (Edward W. Gillespie), a former House GOP leader (Robert S. Walker), a top GOP fundraiser (Wayne L. Berman), and the former media adviser to President Bush (Mark McKinnon).
WPP's Democrats are just as well known. They include an ex-aide to President Jimmy Carter (Anne Wexler), an ex-aide to President Bill Clinton (Jack Quinn), an ex-Cabinet officer for Clinton and Bush (Norman Y. Mineta), and a former top presidential campaign adviser for Al Gore and John Kerry (Michael J. Whouley).
The range of interests represented by these people is a staggering list of corporate America's who's who, with Penn himself a longtime adviser to Microsoft.
"This is a classic example of how big money has inextricably intertwined the campaign advising and lobbying worlds of modern-day Washington with potential conflicts of interest all over the place," said Fred Wertheimer, president of Democracy 21, a watchdog group.
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crystal
08-03 06:09 PM
Search the threads there is a link , if you entered to US in less than a year before filing I-485 they wil send a copy of G-325a to Consulate. If they dont get response in 6 months they move forward, they dont wait for the response. this does not cause backlog as far as i know. They keep consulate visa interview forms for an year , thats what i read in the link
Ok . here is the link
http://www.imminfo.com/resources/cis-sop-aos/7-3-3.html It is 60 days ( not 6 months which i said above)
Do you really think they would send the G-325a to the consulate? Do the consulates keep all the records? For how long? I heard from immigrationportal, somebody said they only send G-325a to the consulate if one applied a visa within one year prior to AOS application. Can anyone confirm this?
If they send everyone's G-325a form to the consulates, would that result in another backlog? Thanks.
Ok . here is the link
http://www.imminfo.com/resources/cis-sop-aos/7-3-3.html It is 60 days ( not 6 months which i said above)
Do you really think they would send the G-325a to the consulate? Do the consulates keep all the records? For how long? I heard from immigrationportal, somebody said they only send G-325a to the consulate if one applied a visa within one year prior to AOS application. Can anyone confirm this?
If they send everyone's G-325a form to the consulates, would that result in another backlog? Thanks.
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GCwaitforever
07-15 07:06 AM
May be we should start an advisory service for H-1B immigrants on their rights, how to fight abusive employers etc ... Best way to go would be setting up a non-profit with initial discussions happening in a local community center hall (Church, Mosque, temple, public library, or even a local cafe). We could even recruit a kind-hearted lawyer on pro-bono basis. When we open chapters at every city where immigrant population is clustered, this will cover most of the immigrants.
We are wondering why IV is not getting enough members enrolling. Setting up this non-profit would be a step in brining activisism in EB immigrants and from then on, they will be readily participating in fighting for their rights. Then we would have a grassroot support organization. Any thoughts/comments, please let me know.
We are wondering why IV is not getting enough members enrolling. Setting up this non-profit would be a step in brining activisism in EB immigrants and from then on, they will be readily participating in fighting for their rights. Then we would have a grassroot support organization. Any thoughts/comments, please let me know.
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desi3933
08-06 09:11 AM
....
....
....
Yes, i do have an attorney and a paralegal i am talking to, and i will file this case in the proper arena. I am fed up and will do what i think is right. Meanwhile, for those who think porting is right, you are welcome to it. No one stopped you from challenging the law either.
You can talk here all you like, but i pray that your "bring it on" attitude survives till the point where this porting mess is banned by law.
Thanks for your attention (or the lack thereof).
Someone (Rolling_Stone is that you?) gave me red dot with this remark
yes, getting a graduate degree from IIT is no big deal. you didn't have to go through JEE
Thanks for the laugh. Are you the ONLY one who got thru JEE? FYI, I did go thru JEE.
BTW you are a coward who does not guts to reply with your ID.
Yes, I agree, getting thru JEE is good but it is no big deal.
Rolling_Stone -
Since you finished your masters in 1.5 years, I think you should go for EB1.5. Think about lawsuit for that. :D
You are a real CKD (if you are an IITian then you should know what it means).
....
....
Yes, i do have an attorney and a paralegal i am talking to, and i will file this case in the proper arena. I am fed up and will do what i think is right. Meanwhile, for those who think porting is right, you are welcome to it. No one stopped you from challenging the law either.
You can talk here all you like, but i pray that your "bring it on" attitude survives till the point where this porting mess is banned by law.
Thanks for your attention (or the lack thereof).
Someone (Rolling_Stone is that you?) gave me red dot with this remark
yes, getting a graduate degree from IIT is no big deal. you didn't have to go through JEE
Thanks for the laugh. Are you the ONLY one who got thru JEE? FYI, I did go thru JEE.
BTW you are a coward who does not guts to reply with your ID.
Yes, I agree, getting thru JEE is good but it is no big deal.
Rolling_Stone -
Since you finished your masters in 1.5 years, I think you should go for EB1.5. Think about lawsuit for that. :D
You are a real CKD (if you are an IITian then you should know what it means).
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NKR
08-05 08:28 AM
What i mean is: Porting should not be an option based on the LENGTH OF WAITING TIME in EB3 status. That is what it is most commonly used for, thus causing a serious disadvantage to EB2 filers (who did not port).
"Employment Preference Categories" have very real legal groundings, and i intend to challenge the porting rule based on those facts.
If someone is unsatisfied with their EB3 application, they are more than welcome to start a fresh EB2 or EB1 application process, rather than try the porting subterfuge.
I hope i have made my point clear? Thanks.
I am EB2 and I do not support this idea. Just imagine, someone could have applied in EB3 though he was qualified for EB2 because he was ill advised by his lawyers or employers. Why should he be punished TWICE for no fault of his?.
"Employment Preference Categories" have very real legal groundings, and i intend to challenge the porting rule based on those facts.
If someone is unsatisfied with their EB3 application, they are more than welcome to start a fresh EB2 or EB1 application process, rather than try the porting subterfuge.
I hope i have made my point clear? Thanks.
I am EB2 and I do not support this idea. Just imagine, someone could have applied in EB3 though he was qualified for EB2 because he was ill advised by his lawyers or employers. Why should he be punished TWICE for no fault of his?.
abracadabra102
01-03 02:48 PM
Writer, Shuja Nawaz
http://www.shujanawaz.com/index.php?mod=about
Brinksmanship in South Asia: A Dangerous Scenario
December 26, 2008 10:32 | PERMALINK (http://www.shujanawaz.com/blog/brinksmanship-in-south-asia-a-dangerous-scenario)
Reports of military movement to the India-Pakistan border must raise alarums in Washington DC. The last thing that the incoming Obama administration wants is a firestorm in South Asia. There cannot be a limited war in the subcontinent, given the imbalance of forces between India and Pakistan. Any Indian attack across the border into Pakistan will likely be met with a full scale response from Pakistan. Yet, the rhetoric that seemed to have cooled down after the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks is rising again. It was exactly this kind of aggressive posturing and public statements that led to the 1971 conflict between these two neighbors. Pakistan has relied in the past on international intervention to prevent war. It worked, except in 1971 when the US and other powers let India invade East Pakistan and lead to the birth of Bangladesh. What makes the current situation especially dangerous is that both are now nuclear weapon states with anywhere up to150 nuclear bombs in their arsenal. If India and Pakistan go to war, the world will lose. Big time. By putting conventional military pressure on Pakistan, is India calling what it perceives to be Pakistan’s bluff under the belief that the United Sates will force nuclear restraint on Pakistan?
The early evidence after the Mumbai terrorist attack pointed to the absence of the Pakistan government’s involvement in the attack. Indeed, the government of Pakistan seemed to bend over backwards to accommodate and understand Indian anger at the tragedy. But, in the weeks since then, as domestic political pressure mounted on the Indian government to do more, talk has turned to the use of surgical strikes or other means to teach Pakistan a lesson. It was in India’s own interest to strengthen the ability of the fledgling civilian government of Pakistan to move against the militancy within the country. But it seems to have opted for threats to attack Pakistan, threats that, if followed up by actions, may well derail the process of civilianization and democratization in that country. India must recognize the constraints under which Pakistan operates. It cannot fight on two fronts. And it lacks the geographic depth to take the risk of leaving its eastern borders undefended at a time when India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a “limited war”.
For Pakistan, there is no concept of “limited war”. Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian’s numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the “poison pill” defence of its nuclear weapons.
The consequences of such action are unimaginable for both countries and the world...
The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) conducted an analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia a year before the last stand-off in 2002. Under two scenarios, one (with a Princeton University team) studied the results of five air bursts over each country’s major cities and the other (done by the NRDC alone) with 24 ground explosions. The results were horrifying to say the least: 2.8 million dead, 1.5 million seriously injured, and 3.4 million slightly injured in the first case. Under the second scenario involving an Indian nuclear attack on eight major Pakistani cities and Pakistan’s attack on seven major Indian cities:
NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
Studies by Richard Turco, Alan Robock, and Brian Toon in 2006 and 2008 on the climate change impact of a regional nuclear war between these two South Asian rivals, were based on the use of 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices of 15 kiloton each. The ensuing nuclear explosions would set 15 major cities in the subcontinent on fire and hurl five million tonnes of soot 80 kilometers into the air. This would deplete ozone levels in the atmosphere up to 40 per cent in the mid-latitudes that “could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems.” More important, the smoke and sot would cool the northern hemisphere by several degrees, disrupting the climate (shortening growing seasons, etc.) and creating massive agricultural failure for several years. The whole world would suffer the consequences.
An Indo-Pakistan war will not cure the cancer of religious militancy that afflicts both countries today. Rather, India and Pakistan risk jeopardizing not only their own economic futures but also that of the world by talking themselves into a conflict. The world cannot afford to let that happen. The Indian and Pakistani governments can step back from the brink by withdrawing their forces from their common border and going back to quiet diplomacy to resolve their differences. The United States and other friends of both countries can act as honest brokers by publicly urging both to do just that before this simmering feud starts to boil over.
This piece appeared in The Huffington Post, 26 December 2008 (http://www.shujanawaz.com//)
This guy sounds as though some injustice was done to Pakistan during 1971 war and conveniently forgets about the atrocities committed by Pakistani soldiers in Bangladesh. Millions were killed, raped or maimed. Around 10 million bangladeshis fled to India. India fought a just war and gave independence to Bangladesh. India did not occupy any of Pakistani territories despite a resounding victory (Entire Pakistan army was rolled up in less than 2 weeks). 1971 war brought back democracy to Pakistan.
Regarding war casualities, yes, wars cost lives. 60 million died during WW-II and most of these are from allies (85%). Russia alone lost around 30 million.
In fact, India can pre-emptively strike Pakistan with nukes and take out Pakistan. A few nukes fired by Pakistan may slip through and kill some Indians but majority casualities will be from Pakistan.
Here is some guesstimate of India-Pakistan nuclear arsenal (http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jsws/jsws020530_1_n.shtml)
If India waits longer, Pakistan builds more nukes and threat to India only increases and may end up taking in more casualities later. And yes, Pakistan will attack if it is confident of destroying India with first strike. It is, after all, run by military junta which is hand in glove with all these terror groups.
But none of this will happen. India is run by hizdas.
http://www.shujanawaz.com/index.php?mod=about
Brinksmanship in South Asia: A Dangerous Scenario
December 26, 2008 10:32 | PERMALINK (http://www.shujanawaz.com/blog/brinksmanship-in-south-asia-a-dangerous-scenario)
Reports of military movement to the India-Pakistan border must raise alarums in Washington DC. The last thing that the incoming Obama administration wants is a firestorm in South Asia. There cannot be a limited war in the subcontinent, given the imbalance of forces between India and Pakistan. Any Indian attack across the border into Pakistan will likely be met with a full scale response from Pakistan. Yet, the rhetoric that seemed to have cooled down after the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks is rising again. It was exactly this kind of aggressive posturing and public statements that led to the 1971 conflict between these two neighbors. Pakistan has relied in the past on international intervention to prevent war. It worked, except in 1971 when the US and other powers let India invade East Pakistan and lead to the birth of Bangladesh. What makes the current situation especially dangerous is that both are now nuclear weapon states with anywhere up to150 nuclear bombs in their arsenal. If India and Pakistan go to war, the world will lose. Big time. By putting conventional military pressure on Pakistan, is India calling what it perceives to be Pakistan’s bluff under the belief that the United Sates will force nuclear restraint on Pakistan?
The early evidence after the Mumbai terrorist attack pointed to the absence of the Pakistan government’s involvement in the attack. Indeed, the government of Pakistan seemed to bend over backwards to accommodate and understand Indian anger at the tragedy. But, in the weeks since then, as domestic political pressure mounted on the Indian government to do more, talk has turned to the use of surgical strikes or other means to teach Pakistan a lesson. It was in India’s own interest to strengthen the ability of the fledgling civilian government of Pakistan to move against the militancy within the country. But it seems to have opted for threats to attack Pakistan, threats that, if followed up by actions, may well derail the process of civilianization and democratization in that country. India must recognize the constraints under which Pakistan operates. It cannot fight on two fronts. And it lacks the geographic depth to take the risk of leaving its eastern borders undefended at a time when India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a “limited war”.
For Pakistan, there is no concept of “limited war”. Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian’s numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the “poison pill” defence of its nuclear weapons.
The consequences of such action are unimaginable for both countries and the world...
The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) conducted an analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia a year before the last stand-off in 2002. Under two scenarios, one (with a Princeton University team) studied the results of five air bursts over each country’s major cities and the other (done by the NRDC alone) with 24 ground explosions. The results were horrifying to say the least: 2.8 million dead, 1.5 million seriously injured, and 3.4 million slightly injured in the first case. Under the second scenario involving an Indian nuclear attack on eight major Pakistani cities and Pakistan’s attack on seven major Indian cities:
NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
Studies by Richard Turco, Alan Robock, and Brian Toon in 2006 and 2008 on the climate change impact of a regional nuclear war between these two South Asian rivals, were based on the use of 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices of 15 kiloton each. The ensuing nuclear explosions would set 15 major cities in the subcontinent on fire and hurl five million tonnes of soot 80 kilometers into the air. This would deplete ozone levels in the atmosphere up to 40 per cent in the mid-latitudes that “could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems.” More important, the smoke and sot would cool the northern hemisphere by several degrees, disrupting the climate (shortening growing seasons, etc.) and creating massive agricultural failure for several years. The whole world would suffer the consequences.
An Indo-Pakistan war will not cure the cancer of religious militancy that afflicts both countries today. Rather, India and Pakistan risk jeopardizing not only their own economic futures but also that of the world by talking themselves into a conflict. The world cannot afford to let that happen. The Indian and Pakistani governments can step back from the brink by withdrawing their forces from their common border and going back to quiet diplomacy to resolve their differences. The United States and other friends of both countries can act as honest brokers by publicly urging both to do just that before this simmering feud starts to boil over.
This piece appeared in The Huffington Post, 26 December 2008 (http://www.shujanawaz.com//)
This guy sounds as though some injustice was done to Pakistan during 1971 war and conveniently forgets about the atrocities committed by Pakistani soldiers in Bangladesh. Millions were killed, raped or maimed. Around 10 million bangladeshis fled to India. India fought a just war and gave independence to Bangladesh. India did not occupy any of Pakistani territories despite a resounding victory (Entire Pakistan army was rolled up in less than 2 weeks). 1971 war brought back democracy to Pakistan.
Regarding war casualities, yes, wars cost lives. 60 million died during WW-II and most of these are from allies (85%). Russia alone lost around 30 million.
In fact, India can pre-emptively strike Pakistan with nukes and take out Pakistan. A few nukes fired by Pakistan may slip through and kill some Indians but majority casualities will be from Pakistan.
Here is some guesstimate of India-Pakistan nuclear arsenal (http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jsws/jsws020530_1_n.shtml)
If India waits longer, Pakistan builds more nukes and threat to India only increases and may end up taking in more casualities later. And yes, Pakistan will attack if it is confident of destroying India with first strike. It is, after all, run by military junta which is hand in glove with all these terror groups.
But none of this will happen. India is run by hizdas.
StuckInTheMuck
08-06 11:14 AM
Got past me too :)
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